Can I retire at 50 with $3 million?
Yes, if you keep spending to about $96k a year plus health insurance. With the assumptions below, that much survived every retirement that started from 1871 to 1980, a first-year withdrawal of about 3.2% of savings.
$3 million at 50, by how much you spend
| Spending a year | Of savings | Simulated markets | Real history |
|---|---|---|---|
| $90k | 3% | 89% last | 110 of 110 starts |
| $120k | 4% | 60% last | 76 of 110 starts |
| $150k | 5% | 30% last | 40 of 110 starts |
Simulated markets: 500 paths built from real 5-year stretches of US history, at a 5% stock and 1.5% bond return after inflation. Real history: the plan replayed from every starting year with full data since 1871 (Robert Shiller's data).
Try your own numbers
Running the numbers…
Starts a free plan with these numbers. The guide then helps you swap in your real accounts, taxes and timing.
What changes the answer
How long the money has to last. Retiring at 50 and planning to 95 means funding 45 years. The classic 4% rule was tested on 30-year retirements; longer ones need a lower starting rate, which is why the safe level here is below 4%.
Social Security. These numbers assume $24k a year from 67, roughly the average benefit. Yours could be much higher or lower; it's the biggest single input after spending. Change it above.
Health insurance before Medicare. From 50 to 65 the plan buys a marketplace plan (about $11k a year at 50 before any subsidy, rising with age) and gets the ACA premium tax credit under current law, which ends above 400% of the poverty line. Then Medicare, about $2.5k a year.
Taxes. Withdrawals from a 401(k) or traditional IRA are taxed as income, brokerage sales only on their gains, and Roth money not at all. The plan assumes 60% of savings is pre-tax, 30% in a brokerage account and 10% Roth, and federal tax at 2026 brackets with no state tax.
The order of returns. A crash in the first years of retirement hurts far more than the same crash later. The real-history column counts starts like 1929 and 1966, when that happened.
Flexibility. Being willing to trim spending for a few years after a bad market raises these odds a lot. A plan of your own shows how much trimming bad markets would ask for.
Assumed for this page
- One person, retiring now at 50, planning to age 95, filing single.
- $3 million saved: 60% 401(k)/IRA, 30% brokerage (70% of it original investment), 10% Roth.
- Stocks return 5% a year after inflation and bonds 1.5%, in a 60/40 mix in retirement.
- Social Security of $24k a year from 67; marketplace health insurance until 65; Medicare from 65.
This is a model, not financial advice. A plan of your own replaces each of these with your numbers.